Unadulterated Arrogance

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

Why blogger shall die

I am neither Nostradamus nor am I a gypsy with a crystal ball but this is what I foresee; a year down the line blogger.com will either cease to exist or metamorphosise; into a paid only avatar and both the outcomes as I predict; are bleak for the blogosphere.

Granted, I am not renown for my powers of clairvoyance yet I still paint this picture of doom with certainty and I do this on account of my understanding of economics. At present I don’t see a valid revenue model when it comes to blogger.com. I don’t see any sources of income for a service of this magnitude to sustain it in the long run. Yes, Blogger.com has Google Inc. as its sugar daddy and maybe Google Inc. might tout blogger.com as a ‘loss leader’ but I am highly sceptical of this practice in the long run.

Blogger at present is not supported by adwords or any other forms of advertisement to rake in the moolah; it also does not offer a premium paid only service so the inflow of funds is minimal or non existent. In the coming months blogger will have to find ways to break even and the only options available are to either put up intrusive ads or offer a paid premium service. There is no such thing as a free lunch and hence I am quite certain that blogger.com will too shift towards a paid premium service. Now a word of advice to all the ignoble populace using blogger is to back up all your old posts onto your computer so that in the event blogger goes bust or paid you will have an archive of your old posts which you can then migrate to any other service.

33 Comments:

  • Good idea!

    By Blogger dayna, at 5/03/2005 06:00:00 AM  

  • You're probably right. If they haven't relied on ads up to now, they probably won't in the future. I was just reading an article about the way advertisement works in the blogosphere... and apparently most advertisers don't want to endanger their reputation by advertising on potentially controversial blogs. The sources that do advertise are usually not as reputable, which could be a problem traffic-wise.

    By Blogger Irina Tsukerman, at 5/03/2005 06:33:00 AM  

  • hmmm thanks for the suggestion. I shall take a back-up.

    By Blogger wookie, at 5/03/2005 08:38:00 AM  

  • yup and as always I have a trump card up my sleeve just in case...

    www.arrogantly.com

    thats where I will be moving to in the near future`... check it out and tell me.

    By Blogger injinuity, at 5/03/2005 09:19:00 AM  

  • I would gander that blogger will take the first route: cease to exist. Unless they add a *lot* more features, blogger is not worth paying for, especially with free alternatives still out there. Me, I regret going with blogger and I wish I'd done my homework.

    By Anonymous C.b., at 5/03/2005 11:45:00 AM  

  • its not that easy migrating from blogger might I add.. they don't let you export the comments.. so its a little difficult.

    By Blogger injinuity, at 5/04/2005 12:07:00 AM  

  • All good things must end.
    Even with it's glitches, Blogger is still an awesome service. Especially when you factor in it's FREE.
    I suppose I need to start giving some thought to an alternative, since I have no intentions of giving up blogging!

    By Blogger wanda, at 5/04/2005 10:49:00 AM  

  • better to be safe than sorry.. so backup baby

    By Blogger injinuity, at 5/04/2005 12:00:00 PM  

  • We All will die one day..
    this blogs and all are not goin to come with us...

    why think about it and get tensed.
    if it goes let it go...

    By Blogger nirantara, at 5/05/2005 02:36:00 AM  

  • true.. but barring the possibility of being killed by someone(ok ok by everyone; which is a high possibility in my case) I have another 50 years to go before I am out cold... so I can't just say I give up now.. I never go with the flow.. make it flow towards you mate.. take control.. its all about control and power... maybe on my deathbed my views will change but not now ;-)

    By Blogger injinuity, at 5/05/2005 02:41:00 AM  

  • cool thought..

    but still, most of the things which happens around us are out of our controll.. is int it?

    lot of times we might have thought, if "that" thing didnt happend to me then my life would be something else..

    like our dear ones death.. how many times we have decided on thing and happend another thing which is just opposite to that..

    we all are weak and poor..
    strenght and all .. we can say. but the fact is it will go off any moment..

    if something happens like a Tsunami or something.....

    But I am "Optimistic" .. really

    By Blogger nirantara, at 5/05/2005 05:01:00 AM  

  • Even if all things come to an end, we must do the best we can with what we have, and take control whenever it's possible. And to strive to expand the limits of possibility!

    By Blogger Irina Tsukerman, at 5/05/2005 08:08:00 AM  

  • nirantara-beautiful name.does your blog have anything to do with mata amritanandamayi?(pardon me if I misspelt it). I am curious cos of the picture you have on your page.
    Jinu-sorry for leaving a comment for somebodyelse on your blog.dont be mad.

    By Blogger wookie, at 5/05/2005 09:18:00 AM  

  • yup nirantara is a very nice nickname...

    well nirantara, if something like a tsunami happens.. well I'd invest in cement companies and construction companies ;-)

    woooookieeee..... u konw I am not going to be mad at my dear ol friedn.... well I could be mad at you for a lot of things but not something as trivial as this.. even I am not that a grouch.

    By Blogger injinuity, at 5/05/2005 10:44:00 AM  

  • glad you aren't :)

    By Blogger wookie, at 5/05/2005 11:25:00 AM  

  • great prophecy doc!!

    Surely shall keep this reference when the occurence has occured :)

    By Blogger perspective, at 5/06/2005 11:20:00 AM  

  • wookie. i dont know. if this blog has something to do with Mata Amritanandamayi devi. i have met Amma many times.. that is the link.. and thanks for the compliment

    injinuity . thanks. and nirantara means eternal... and i always talks about the end... so there is nothing in a name...

    By Blogger nirantara, at 5/07/2005 10:08:00 AM  

  • and I always talk about the means justifying the end.

    By Blogger injinuity, at 5/07/2005 11:42:00 AM  

  • please check out the kerala blogroll at http://www.cs.princeton.edu/~mp/malayalam/blogs . wondering if your blog would fit the bill? please visit the above page and drop me a line.

    thanks,
    manoj

    By Blogger mp, at 5/10/2005 11:54:00 AM  

  • Blogger has a very clever business plan. It's very ingenious and it will probably stay free on one level, and then , with ecominies of scale, start charing on another level. By offering free blogs, especially the dirty ones that you see on the Dashboard - they have created a massive universe of blogs and all sorts of new realities that have been created in response to those blogs- that has lots of value, both tangibile and not. We shall see.

    It's true that ads do not want to appear on controversial blogs- but they do want them to be near them, so as to benefit passivly.

    Also- that is a pretty name -Nirantara.

    By Blogger Gothamimage, at 5/10/2005 02:58:00 PM  

  • Well W.P, in either case would you like to take the risk?.. I think not.. lets pack and move on... I shall invite you for my new housewarming party at www.arrogantly.com ;-)

    By Blogger injinuity, at 5/12/2005 12:05:00 AM  

  • Done! I have saved them as webpages..hope that is enuff:)

    By Blogger Sangeeta, at 5/14/2005 12:01:00 AM  

  • yup that should do the trick sangeets.

    By Blogger injinuity, at 5/14/2005 01:39:00 PM  

  • Backing up my blog...I will have to look into it. Thanks for the heads up.

    By Blogger cube, at 5/16/2005 09:41:00 AM  

  • I could offer you a lot of reasons to ditch Blogger, but not because it's going anywhere.

    It's clear you don't already know the history of Blogger, so I'll enlighten you:

    Blogger was an independent company which, in fact, offered a paid service, known as Blogger Pro. However, Google bought Blogger and rolled all of the features of Blogger Pro into the main product and declared it a free service, doing away with the paid service. (Those of us who had paid for the Pro service got a free sweatshirt out of the deal.) As well, the Blogspot hosting service used to have a paid service while the free hosting was ad supported. Google as the parent did away with this as well, making all aspects of the Blogger / Blogspot service free and free from ads that were controlled by them. (While users are free to add Google AdWords to their own blogs.)

    Why would they do this?

    1. Because Google is actually a decent company that believes that some things should just be free, like the ability too publish on the web. They have an idealist view that it's something that helps the web be a better place overall. (Or at least, this what they tell us. I couldn't verify this claim as factual, but it's what they said.)

    2. Because they are smart, and they know that most people, when looking to add ads to their own blogs will choose Google AdSense anyway, so they'll still be making money on it.

    I'll tell you now that I'm 99.9% sure that your prediction is wrong. Google is doing quite well as a company, and Blogger is one of their babies. I don't see any hint of them doing away with it any time soon.

    All that said though, I host my own blog on a WordPress install on my own server (which is actually down as I post this, yet I'm still happier doing it that way), and wouldn't go back to using Blogger unless some major changes took place (and even then I doubt I would; I like the control I have on my own site).

    However, for the average non-technical person out there looking to set up a blog, Blogger is still the site I recommend they start with for the ease and simplicity, and the price. Which will continue to be free.

    By Blogger FruitFly, at 5/16/2005 03:56:00 PM  

  • Hello Fruitfy,

    1. No company is decent my friend, its all about the money honey... if you think a company is good its so because of their PR dept ;-)

    2. Most ppl dont add googleadsene to their blogs my friends,only a minority do.

    3. Only time will tell but as of late I see my prophecy self fulfilling with the frequent downtime and other errors.

    More than blogger going bust the probability of them coming out with a paid form of it is more likely if not blogger will stagnate and disappear into oblivion

    By Blogger injinuity, at 5/16/2005 11:20:00 PM  

  • Maybe they are selling space to spyware companies, or maybe they are selling our email addresses?

    By Blogger Toad734, at 5/23/2005 06:26:00 AM  

  • I was typing in a short response to your excellent post, but my comment became so insanely long that I finally decided I might as well just make it a post on my own site, so as not to clog up your site with my rant.

    Here it is:

    The Free Blogging Freeway

    I plug Firfox again, even though I know you're an Opera fan, but otherwise I think this might be of interest to you.

    thanks for the post!

    By Blogger Lucas Brachish, at 5/25/2005 10:26:00 PM  

  • read your entry at your site.. nice post..

    and on another note, firefox is useless switch over and come to the opera camp, come in come in.

    By Blogger injinuity, at 5/27/2005 01:33:00 PM  

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    By Blogger jobs123, at 10/02/2005 06:56:00 AM  

  • blogger.com is owned and operated by google..They will never go to paid bloggs..i mean look at myspace..and google dont even own them..Im sure everyone knows how large google is...so i wouldnt worrie about going to paoid blogggs

    By Blogger Politics Avenger, at 5/18/2006 09:22:00 AM  

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